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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the award. However, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

However this year's field is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners declining and longtime strugglers rising collectively. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still