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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. One proposal centers on Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he added.